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  5. Fibonacci retracement pattern recognition for forecasting foreign exchange market
 
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Fibonacci retracement pattern recognition for forecasting foreign exchange market

Journal
International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining
ISSN
17438187
Date Issued
2020-01-01
Author(s)
Mohd Fauzi Ramli
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Ahmad Kadri Junoh
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Mahyun Ab Wahab
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Wan Zuki Azman Wan Muhamad
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
DOI
10.1504/IJBIDM.2020.108775
Abstract
Fibonacci retracement implicates a forecast of future movements in foreign exchange rates (forex) of the previous movement inductive analysis. Fibonacci ratios are used to forecast the retracements level of 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618 and to determine the current trend which provide the mathematical foundation for the Elliott wave theory. K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) algorithm are the pattern recognition method for nonlinear feature mining of Elliott wave patterns. Results show that LDA is better than KNN in terms of classification accuracy data which are 99.43%. Among of three levels of Fibonacci retracement results, the 38.2% shows the best forecasting for Great Britain Pound pair to US Dollar currency as major pair by using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and pearson correlation coefficient (r) as the statistical measurements which are 0.001884, 0.000019 and 0.992253 for uptrend and 0.001685, 0.000019 and 0.998806 for downtrend.
Funding(s)
Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia
Subjects
  • Elliott wave

  • Fibonacci retracement...

  • Forecast

  • Forex

  • Golden ratio

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Fibonacci retracement pattern recognition for forecasting foreign exchange market.pdf (447.95 KB)
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