Norazrin Ramli
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Norazrin Ramli
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Norazrin, Ramli
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Ramli, Norazrin
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HTP-4661-2023

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Performance of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for short-term prediction of PM10 concentration in the Peninsular Malaysia

2023 , Norazrin Ramli , Hazrul Abdul Hamid , Ahmad Shukri Yahaya , Ahmad Zia Ul-Saufie , Norazian Mohamed Noor , Ain Nihla Kamarudzaman , György Deák , Nor Amirah Abu Seman @ Haji Ahmad

In preparation for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0) in Malaysia, the government envisions a path to environmental sustainability and an improvement in air quality. Air quality measurements were initiated in different backgrounds including urban, suburban, industrial and rural to detect any significant changes in air quality parameters. Due to the dynamic nature of the weather, geographical location and anthropogenic sources, many uncertainties must be considered when dealing with air pollution data. In recent years, the Bayesian approach to fitting statistical models has gained more popularity due to its alternative modelling strategy that accounted for uncertainties for all air quality parameters. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the performance of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in predicting the next-day PM10 concentration in Peninsular Malaysia. A case study utilized seventeen years’ worth of air quality monitoring data from nine (9) monitoring stations located in Peninsular Malaysia, using eight air quality parameters, i.e., PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, O3, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The performances of the next-day PM10 prediction were calculated using five models’ performance evaluators, namely Coefficient of Determination (R2), Index of Agreement (IA), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The BMA models indicate that relative humidity, wind speed and PM10 contributed the most to the prediction model for the majority of stations with (R2 = 0.752 at Pasir Gudang monitoring station), (R2 = 0.749 at Larkin monitoring station), (R2 = 0.703 at Kota Bharu monitoring station), (R2 = 0.696 at Kangar monitoring station) and (R2 = 0.692 at Jerantut monitoring station), respectively. Furthermore, the BMA models demonstrated a good prediction model performance, with IA ranging from 0.84 to 0.91, R2 ranging from 0.64 to 0.75 and KGE ranging from 0.61 to 0.74 for all monitoring stations. According to the results of the investigation, BMA should be utilised in research and forecasting operations pertaining to environmental issues such as air pollution. From this study, BMA is recommended as one of the prediction tools for forecasting air pollution concentration, especially particulate matter level.

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Variability of PM10 level with gaseous pollutants and meteorological parameters during episodic haze event in Malaysia: domestic or solely transboundary factor?

2023 , Nur Alis Addiena A Rahim , Norazian Mohamed Noor , Izzati Amani Mohd Jafri , Ahmad Zia Ul-Saufie , Norazrin Ramli , Ain Nihla Kamarudzaman , Nor Amirah Abu Seman @ Haji Ahmad , Mohd Remy Rozainy Mohd Arif Zainol , Sandu Andrei Victor , Gyorgy Deak

Haze has become a seasonal phenomenon affecting Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, and has occurred almost every year within the last few decades. Air pollutants, specifically particulate matter, have drawn a lot of attention due to their adverse impact on human health. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the PM10 concentration at Kelang, Melaka, Pasir Gudang, and Petaling Jaya during historic haze events were analysed. An hourly dataset consisting of PM10, gaseous pollutants and weather parameters were obtained from Department of Environment Malaysia. The mean PM10 concentrations exceeded the stipulated Recommended Malaysia Ambient Air Quality Guideline for the yearly average of 150 μg/m3 except for Pasir Gudang in 1997 and 2005, and Petaling Jaya in 2013. The PM10 concentrations exhibit greater variability in the southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon periods at the studied year. The air masses are found to be originating from the region of Sumatra during the haze episodes. Strong to moderate correlation of PM10 concentrations was found between CO during the years that recorded episodic haze, meanwhile, the relationship of PM10 level with SO2 was found to be significant in 2013 with significant negatively correlated relative humidity. Weak correlation of PM10-NOx was measured in all study areas probably due to less contribution of domestic anthropogenic sources towards haze events in Malaysia.

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Modified linear regression for predicting ambient particulate pollutants (PM₁₀) during High Particulate Event

2023 , Izzati Amani Mohd Jafri , Norazian Mohamed Noor , Nur Alis Addiena A. Rahim , Syaza Ezzati Baidrulhisham , Norazrin Ramli , Ahmad Zia Ul-Saufie , György Deák Habil

Particulate Matter (PM₁₀) is one of the most significant contributors towards haze or high particulate event (HPE) that occurs in Malaysia. HPE can severely affect human health, environment and economic so it is important to create a reliable prediction model in predicting future PM₁₀ concentration especially during HPE. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the performance of modified linear regression models in predicting the next-day Particulate Matter (PM₁₀+24) concentration at two areas in the peninsular Malaysia namely, Bukit Rambai and Nilai. Hourly air quality dataset during historic HPE in 1997, 2005, 2013 and 2015 were used for analysis. Pearson correlation was used to select the input of the PM₁₀ prediction model where only parameters with moderate (0.6 > r > 0.3) and strong (r > 0.6) correlation with PM₁₀ concentration were selected as independent variables input in creating the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The performance of modified linear regression model was evaluated by using several performance indicator which is Prediction Accuracy (PA), Index of Agreement (d 2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results show that the modified MLR (parameter with r > 0.6 included as input) gave the best prediction model for the next-day PM₁₀ concentration in both Bukit Rambai and Nilai.

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Analysis of air pollution in Malaysia: implications for environmental conservation using granger causality and pearson correlation

2025 , Zulkifli Abd Rais , Norazrin Ramli , Hazrul Abdul Hamid , Norazian Mohamed Noor , Ahmad Zia Ul-Saufie , Mohd Khairul Nizam MAHMAD

This study investigates the relationships between air pollutants (PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, O₃, CO) and meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed) across five states in Malaysia: Seberang Perai, Shah Alam, Nilai, Larkin and Pasir Gudang. Using time-series data from 2017 to 2021, we applied Granger causality and Pearson correlation to explore the predictive relationships and linear associations between these variables. Granger causality provided insights into temporal precedence, revealing significant predictive relationships such as temperature Granger-causing PM₁₀ and O₃ in Nilai and Shah Alam. Meanwhile, Pearson correlation highlighted strong linear relationships, such as the positive correlation between PM₁₀ and wind speed in Shah Alam and the negative correlation between humidity and O₃ across several stations. By comparing both methods, we show how combining Granger causality with Pearson correlation can enhance environmental modelling, offering a comprehensive approach to air pollution prediction. This integration provides robust insights into the dynamics of air quality, which are critical for developing effective pollution control strategies.

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