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  5. Deterministic and stochastic SIS model of common cold in Universiti Malaysia Perlis
 
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Deterministic and stochastic SIS model of common cold in Universiti Malaysia Perlis

Journal
Applied Mathematics and Computational Intelligence (AMCI)
ISSN
2289-1315
Date Issued
2017-12
Author(s)
Nur Farhana Hazwani Abdul Shamad
Institute of Engineering Mathematics
Amran Ahmed
Institute of Engineering Mathematics
Mohammad Iqbal Omar
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Handle (URI)
https://amci.unimap.edu.my/
https://ejournal.unimap.edu.my/index.php/amci/article/view/185/152
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14170/1494
Abstract
The epidemiological of common cold with Susceptible‐ Infected‐ Susceptible(SIS) model is the description of the dynamics of a disease that is contact transmitted with no long lasting immunity. This is the first attempt to develop SIS model on common cold. The purpose of this study is to compare between the deterministic and stochastic SIS model with demography and without demography (presence of births and deaths), to derive the reproductive number, between the models and to compare the SIS models demography without pharmacological treatment and with pharmacological treatment. There are two groups tested in SIS model which is UniMAP’s students and UniMAP’s staffs and these data were taken from UniMAP’s university health centre on September 2015. In this study, SIS models were implemented as set of deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODE) that can be solved by using different numerical methods and a discrete time Markovchain (DTMC) process in stochastic simulations. Gillespie algorithm had been used to generate stochastic simulations efficiently in R program. Then, differential equations will be constructed which described the mean statistics of each process. Hence the derivation of reproductive number, had been obtained by using then ext generation operator method. In these cases, the number of infected persons in SIS demography will continuously decreaseas there are presence of births and deaths in the population.Pharmacological treatment had been used to improve and control the in fection of common cold from spread to population. This control measures help to minimize the numbers of infected individuals in the population. Therefore, the pharmacological treatment increases ther ecovery rate and helps them to recover more quickly. Basic reproductive number, for every models without demography and with demography were derived for determining whether a disease persist in the population or not.The disease will continuously spread out into population if as all the models are greater than1.
Subjects
  • SIS model

  • Reproduction number

  • Deterministic

  • Stochasticity

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Deterministic and Stochastic SIS Model of Common Cold.pdf (1.27 MB)
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