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  5. Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics for malaria in individuals with varying levels of risk
 
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Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics for malaria in individuals with varying levels of risk

Journal
International Journal of Dynamics and Control
ISSN
2195-268X
2195-2698
Date Issued
2025-01
Author(s)
Gekonga Wanchoke Chacha
The Open University of Tanzania
Sarinah Banu Mohamed Siddik
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Fatmawati
Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia
DOI
10.1007/s40435-024-01522-4
Handle (URI)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40435-024-01522-4
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14170/15938
Abstract
Malaria continues to be a critical global health issue due to its profound impact on human development. This study explores the dynamics of malaria transmission within a population exhibiting multiple human susceptibilities, which arise from behavioral, locational, and occupational factors. We have formulated a nonlinear, time-dependent differential equation model to capture these dynamics. The model distinguishes between low- and high-risk susceptible human populations, offering a detailed analysis of malaria transmission patterns. We calculated the basic reproduction number R0, along with the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) points. The DFE is locally asymptotically stable when R0<1, while the EE is globally asymptotically stable when R0>1. Additionally, the model exhibits a backward bifurcation. Moreover, we have graphically illustrated the impact of multiple human susceptibilities. These effects become more evident over time: as the proportion of highly susceptible individuals within the population increases, the overall transmission rate rises accordingly. Furthermore, the mosquito-human contact rate and the mosquito death rate have exhibited effects consistent with our expectations.
Subjects
  • High-risk susceptible...

  • Low-risk susceptibles...

  • Malaria

  • Multiple-susceptibili...

  • Transmission

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Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics for malaria in individuals with varying levels of risk.pdf (83.36 KB)
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