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  5. A Hybrid Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model with 4253HT Smoother
 
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A Hybrid Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model with 4253HT Smoother

Journal
Applied Mathematics and Computational Intelligence (AMCI)
ISSN
2289-1323
Date Issued
2022-12
Editor(s)
Nik Muhammad Farhan Hakim Nik Badrul Alam
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Nazirah Ramli
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Adie Safian Ton Mohamed
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Noor Izyan Mohamad Adnan
Universiti Malaysia Perlis
Handle (URI)
https://ejournal.unimap.edu.my/index.php/amci/article/view/481
https://ejournal.unimap.edu.my/index.php/amci/article/view/481/332
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14170/14568
Abstract
Forecasting time series data is crucial for predicting upcoming observations, especially in the market and business. Proper actions can be taken when there are some figures on future data, which are predicted based on the previous data. The fusion of fuzzy time series in forecasting has made forecasting using linguistic variables possible. However, the existence of extreme values in the time series data has led to inaccurate forecasting since the values are too large or too small. Hence, this paper proposes a hybrid fuzzy time series forecasting model with the 4253HT smoother to reduce the uncertainty of data. In this study, students’ enrolment data at the University of Alabama are implemented to illustrate the proposed hybrid forecasting model. The results show that the proposed model improves the forecasting performance since the mean square, root mean square, and mean absolute errors have been reduced. In the future, the implementation of data smoothing using the 4253HT smoother can be used in other fuzzy time series and intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting models.
Subjects
  • Fuzzy time series

  • 4253HT Smoother

  • Students’ enrolment

  • Time series forecasti...

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